I haven’t shredded a lousy gun violence study lately, so I think it’s time again. CBS, never really known for accurate reporting, has provided a decent opportunity with their claim that “Gun violence in the U.S. is becoming more fatal.” To support that claim, they cite this study.
Patterns in Location of Death From Firearm Injury in the US
Studies suggest that both the risk and lethality of firearm injuries have increased, partly due to larger magazine capacity and growing use of high-caliber weapons.
I don’t even know what they mean by “high caliber,” a term usually indicating good quality; as in a “high caliber surgeon.”
Maybe they meant larger caliber. Let’s consider that.
According to the ATF, the most popular calibers for ’80s and ’90s criminals were:
- .38 caliber: 29%
- .357 caliber 28%
- .22 caliber: 16%
Of course, .38s and .357s actually use the same diameter bullet, 0.357 inches.
In 2022, 24/7 Wall St reported that the crime guns most traced are “25, .32 and .380.” That’s a little surprising to me; I would have expected 9mm (0.355″) to be up there. Anti-gun The Trace seems to agree with me.
So if, anything, crime gun calibers seem to be trending smaller, not larger.
But whatever the cause, why do these brilliant researchers think guns are getting more lethal?
Between 1999 and 2021, 306 772 deaths from non–self-inflicted firearm injury occurred in the US. The proportion of deaths at the scene increased from 51.8% (n = 6036) in 1999 to 56.6% (n = 10 141) in 2021.
I see a little problem with their methodology.
The number (not rate) of at-scene deaths increased 4.8%. You know what else increased from 1991 to 2021? The US population, by 17%.
More people to be shooting, more people to be shot, equals more people to be killed. They should have adjusted for population.
Another credible option would have been to ignore population and compare the ratios of people shot to people killed. I’ve seen another study that tried to do that, but they admittedly ran into problems.
For one, they couldn’t find good enough data on bullet placement; to see if the lethality difference was the cartridge or marksmanship. The other big problem was how much improvements in trauma medicine contributed to survival. That paper found that shooting lethality appeared to be decreasing (unlike the current bozos), but couldn’t attributed a cause with much confidence.
I’m always hoping to see more decent research on firearms. Sadly, this is not that day.
Gab Pay link (More Tip Jar Options) |
I don’t think we are likely to ever see a truly definitive study on “gun violence,” whatever that means.
For one thing, the phrase means so many things to different people, never mind taking the next step to socio-political bending of all that follows, beginning with the definition itself, through deciding how to record bits of data, and ending with final interpretation of the aggregate.
For another, as you have pointed out, there are so many niggling little details to be captured, recorded, analyzed, and reported, it would be nearly impossible to accurately and completely collect the necessary data details of a small group, never mind a nation of our size.
Given the human biases and the difficulty of data collecting in necessary detail even beyond firearm data (response times and available medical treatment, for instance) it seems unlikely to me that we will ever see the final report we hope for. That is, for those of us who hope for an accurate, unbiased, and complete one.
I’ll throw another (possibly) contributing factor in there. Most EMS crews will not respond to a scene call without the police being there to secure the scene. Now let’s say if for some bizarre reason there are fewer police available to secure scenes, then wait time is going to increase as the EMS unit now has to wait longer for a police unit to secure the scene before they can go in. Another unanticipated (though should have been) consequence of Defund the police, the idiots.