Young Mr. Haykeen has some issues…

I was a 6-year-old in a war zone. It felt safer than life in the mass shooting zone called America
During the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War, my family and I visited our friends in Kfar Vradim, a small village in northern Israel within close proximity to Lebanon where Hezbollah was situated. Throughout our visit, sirens routinely went off when a conflict broke out near the town. The alarms indicated that we needed to enter the bomb shelter.

I was petrified. I vividly recall hearing gunshots being fired from afar. It sounded as if 1,000 pistols were shot every minute.

I was a 6-year-old in a war zone. It felt far from ideal. But at least I had the bomb shelter as an escape – unlike the 12 people who were murdered and the several others who were injured in Virginia Beach 10 days ago.

Haykeen “feelz” less safe in America than in a war zone where he had to retreat to bomb shelter. He cites an incident 2,721 miles away. He never cites any instance of himself being a victim of “gun violence;” apparently the closest he got to that was a lockdown years ago, because “three presumably-armed burglary suspects were near the school.”

Near. Not there.

Presumably. He doesn’t even know.

Haykeen may need treatment for anxiety.

“subjectively unpleasant feelings of dread over anticipated events, such as the feeling of imminent death. Anxiety is not the same as fear, which is a response to a real or perceived immediate threat, whereas anxiety involves the expectation of future threat.”

Has Haykeen ever had to hit the deck due to shots fired since that Israel trip? I have; it wasn’t in America… either time.

Has he ever stared down the barrel of a gun aimed at him? I have; it wasn’t in America.

I prepare for the possibility of violence, but I don’t live in unreasonable dread.

Let’s play with WISQARS again.

Overall, Americans have a 0.012% chance of being a “gun violence” fatality. You can improve those odds by not considering suicide (approximately two-thirds of firearm-related fatalities). You can also improve odds by not living in a major city, or being a gang member, or being involved in the drug trade.

He appears to be a white male living in Los Angeles, CA.

2017 White Male, Homicide, Firearm; Overall 3.41/100k

Urban area: 3.49/100K (1 chance in 28653)

He can improve those odds by getting the heck out of Dodge Los Angeles.

Non-urban: 2.99 (1 chance in 33445)

Ah, but Urban Black Males: 36.06/100K (1 chance in merely 2773). Fortunately for Haykeen, he isn’t Black. And hopefully he’s avoiding certain lifestyle choices involving drugs, guns, and gangs.

If you narrow that down to Urban Black Males, age 15-30yo: 81.50/100K (1 in 1227)

Myself? For my area and age, the rate is so low that WISQARS warns not to trust it. 6 is not a good statistical universe.

Statistically, should Haykeen really be living in dread of dying by “gun violence”? Unless he knows something about himself that he didn’t share in that column, it isn’t rational. Perhaps he needs treatment; I just hope it doesn’t involve SSRIs.

[Permission to republish this article is granted so long as it is not edited and the author and The Zelman Partisans are credited.]

 

Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could really use the money, what with ISP and web host bills. And the rabbits need feed. Click here to donate via PayPal. (More Tip Jar Options)

 

---

Ed. note: This commentary appeared first in TZP’s weekly email alert. If you would like to be among the first to see new commentary (as well as to get notice of new polls and recaps of recent posts), please sign up for our alert list. (See sidebar or, if you’re on a mobile device, scroll down). Be sure to respond when you receive your activation email!