All posts by Carl Bussjaeger

Author: Net Assets, Bargaining Position, The Anarchy Belt, and more

[UPDATED] Rotters – Their THIRD iteration

See update below. Data changed again.


I mean Reuters. Making stuff up as they go. They published a chart: Violence in Europe: Average annual number of deaths from lethal gun victimisation per 100,000 in select European countries, 2010-2016.

If you click that link, I have no idea what data you’ll get. On Tuesday, it purported to show Cyprus, just as an example since it was the top of the chart… then, with an overall firearms death rate of 63.9 per 100,000, and 82.4/100K among males 15-29. I’m not familiar with Cyprus numbers, so maybe that is was correct.

I am a little more familiar with UK numbers. Reuters showed them at overall 2.6/100K, and 6.9/100K among 15-29 year-old males.

That bastion of accuracy, Wikipedia shows Cyprus at 1.87/100K overall, and the UK at 0.23/100K. But at least Wikipedia links to their sources. Reuters simply says “Source: World Health Organization.” Maybe, but I can’t find it.

For the record, Wikipedia shows the US at 11.96/100K, which happens to be exactly what CDC says for 2016. So there’s a cross-check on Wikipedia data, something lacking in the Reuters data. According to Reuters (Tuesday), there were at least twelve European countries with firearms death rates exceeding that of the US: Switzerland, Denmark, Italy, Ireland, Netherlands, Moldavia, Estonia, Norway, Macedonia, Serbia, Sweden, and Cyprus.

That’s not exactly what you usually hear: that the US has a higher rate than any other developed nation (or whatever term they toss out du jour).

Since I could find the WHO data, I wrote to Reuters.

Regarding the chart:

Violence in Europe
Average annual number of deaths from lethal gun victimisation per 100,000 in select European countries, 2010-2016.
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/VIOLENCE/0H0012Y7C163/index.html
Source: World Health Organisation
Gustavo Cabrera

I have been unable to locate the data on the WHO web site. Would it be possible to give me a link to the source data used by Gustavo Cabrera?

Thank you.

As expected, no response other than an automated ” being reviewed by our support staff” email.

But on Wednesday, the chart had changed.

Now, no country has an overall rate exceeding 0.5/100K; safely below that of the US. Maybe. But look closely, because on Tuesday, overall population was indicated by the black outline, and males 15-29 were pale blue. On Wednesday, the labelling is reversed. Either Wednesday labels are a mistake, or — unlike the US — males 15-29 are some of the safest people in Europe.

Take a look at the scale(s)…

On Tuesday:

0 to 100, to accommodate the sky-high Cyprus.

On Wednesday:

0.0 to that 0.5.

So suddenly everyone in Europe has a lower firearms death rate than the US… including nations that were experiencing civil wars in the indicated time frame. And the data of neither day bears any resemblance to that found elsewhere on the Internet. If Reuters is to be believed, the UK doesn’t have any firearms deaths. Which seems a little hard to believe.

UPDATE, Thursday, 8/16/2018: They’re on the third interation of that chart now.
But at least they now have a correction notice.

Correction: a previous version of this graphic contained a number of mathematical errors resulting in incorrect data and wide inaccuracies . This data has been changed to reflect the corrected numbers. For example, from 2010-2016 in Sweden there was an average of 1.2 gun-related deaths per 100,000 men aged 15-29, not 80.4 as was previously charted.

At least some of the numbers now bear a passing resemblance to data I found from other sources. Reuters provided me with a spreadsheet of their data, which was used to create this third version of the chart.

Note that numbers have changed, as have rankings, and even country labels.

The scale has changed again, too.

Reuters also gave me a link to the WHO database they used. Checking that will take a lot longer.

I think it’s pitiful — but typical — that Reuters only corrected this — and admitted to the correction — after being called out on it three times (yes, I sent them three messages regarding the inaccuracies). Once upon a time, Reuters was my go-to news service, but I ended that probably 20 years ago over just such errors and practices (not to mention an anti-RKBA slant you could ski down).


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.
(More Tip Jar Options)

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Recommended Reading

Oleg Volk has shared a column written by a friend. I think it is important enough to share now, rather than waiting to include it in next week’s newsletter.

AMENDMENT TWO: A LEGAL IMMIGRANT’S CAUTIONARY TALE by Anonymous
I am a proud American, an unhyphenated American. I am the most fortunate type of American, one who has won life’s lottery by escaping communism. My family endured persecution, physical risk, and constant intimidation by the secret police to legally enter the United States.

I am proudly writing this in English, because mastering English opened opportunities that would have been denied to me had I chosen to limit myself to my native language and culture.

What does this have to do with the Second Amendment? I am telling you about my past because I want you to understand who I am. I want you to understand the source of my passion.

The fruits of tyranny are not an abstract topic for me.

I am going to use words like political correctness, slavery, communism, and dystopia and I want you to understand the full measure of my meaning.

I want you to understand why I take my rights and responsibilities as a gun owner so seriously.
[Read the entire column]

I don’t know who the author is, but over the years I’ve worked with people, who escaped the Soviet Bloc, who could have written just this.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Redefining “firearm”. Again.

An interesting legal theory.

Academy sporting goods chain sued by couple wounded in Sutherland Springs church shooting
On Friday, Rosanne Solis and Joaquin Ramirez sued Academy Sports + Outdoors for selling Devin Patrick Kelley a Ruger AR-556 with 30 round capacity magazines. While this model is legal in Texas, Kelley was a resident of Colorado, where it’s illegal to sell, possess or manufacture magazines with capacities over 15 rounds.
[…]
Emily Taylor, a gun law expert in San Antonio, said she believes Solis and Ramirez have a case. Federal law prohibits licensed gun dealers from selling to residents of other states unless the buyer meets them in person and the sale “fully” complies “with the legal conditions of sale in both such States.”

IANAL, yada yada…

Not quite, Taylor. Federal law prohibits licensed gun dealers from selling firearms to residents of other states, with exceptions.

18 U.S. Code § 922(b) It shall be unlawful for any licensed importer, licensed manufacturer, licensed dealer, or licensed collector to sell or deliver—
3) any firearm to any person who the licensee knows or has reasonable cause to believe does not reside in (or if the person is a corporation or other business entity, does not maintain a place of business in) the State in which the licensee’s place of business is located, except that this paragraph (A) shall not apply to the sale or delivery of any rifle or shotgun to a resident of a State other than a State in which the licensee’s place of business is located if the transferee meets in person with the transferor to accomplish the transfer, and the sale, delivery, and receipt fully comply with the legal conditions of sale in both such States (and any licensed manufacturer, importer or dealer shall be presumed, for purposes of this subparagraph, in the absence of evidence to the contrary, to have had actual knowledge of the State laws and published ordinances of both States), and (B) shall not apply to the loan or rental of a firearm to any person for temporary use for lawful sporting purposes;

And “firearm”? “Rifle”?

26 U.S. Code § 5845Firearm
The term “firearm” means (1) a shotgun having a barrel or barrels of less than 18 inches in length; (2) a weapon made from a shotgun if such weapon as modified has an overall length of less than 26 inches or a barrel or barrels of less than 18 inches in length; (3) a rifle having a barrel or barrels of less than 16 inches in length; (4) a weapon made from a rifle if such weapon as modified has an overall length of less than 26 inches or a barrel or barrels of less than 16 inches in length; (5) any other weapon, as defined in subsection (e); (6) a machinegun; (7) any silencer (as defined in section 921 of title 18, United States Code); and (8) a destructive device. The term “firearm” shall not include an antique firearm or any device (other than a machinegun or destructive device) which, although designed as a weapon, the Secretary finds by reason of the date of its manufacture, value, design, and other characteristics is primarily a collector’s item and is not likely to be used as a weapon.

No mention of magazines in federal law there.

(c) Rifle
The term “rifle” means a weapon designed or redesigned, made or remade, and intended to be fired from the shoulder and designed or redesigned and made or remade to use the energy of the explosive in a fixed cartridge to fire only a single projectile through a rifled bore for each single pull of the trigger, and shall include any such weapon which may be readily restored to fire a fixed cartridge.

Nor there.

As best I understand the laws, federal restrictions are not on magazines; just firearms. Dealers in other states aren’t responsible for complying with Colorado laws on non-firearms. For this case to fly, Solis and Ramirez will have to convince the jury that a magazine is a rifle component that — just as a drop-in auto sear is a “machinegun” — constitutes a firearm in its own right.

If I were on the jury, they would have to come up with a remarkably persuasive argument to convince me of that. Personally, I think the DIAS=machinegun bit is ridiculous, but at least it’s codified in law. Magazine=firearm is not.

But gun controllers would love it, as such a ruling would make magazines into firearms, subject to all the licensing for manufacture and sale, and background checks by FFLs.

Serial numbers. Bound book entries. Inspections.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5845
And, if magazines are guns, what of the existing millions of unserialized commercially sold magazines?


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.
(More Tip Jar Options)

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Horses, cats, and ships

I’ve noted before that 3D-printed plastic guns are impractical.

So why the emphasis on stopping them?

To suppress the technology

The Darkly Twisted Logic Behind The NRA’s Support For 3D-Printed Guns
“You go down six months, two years, five years, when these things do start to appear, and then they sort of shrug their shoulders and say you can’t regulate these things, the horse is out of the barn,” said Spitzer. “The public policy question is are these worthy of regulation or even prohibition or restriction in the first place, and if they are, what better time to do it than before they become widely in circulation?”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nra-3d-printed-guns-gun-control_us_5b633bcce4b0fd5c73d762b2

The cat is out of the bag, the horse has left, the barn, that ship sailed, [insert your favored metaphor].

People have been hand-making gun for centuries. 3D printing does make it easier for the unskilled to start from scratch. But you know what? There’s another grand invention that already did that.

Pipe.

Once you could go down to the hardware store and pick up iron pipe in various sizes, anybody could make a gun. And a lot of people did. And do.

Shall we ban indoor plumbing? If it saves just one life?


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.


Ed. note: This commentary appeared first in TZP’s weekly email alert. If you would like to be among the first to see new commentary (as well as to get notice of new polls and recaps of recent posts), please sign up for our alert list. (See sidebar or, if you’re on a mobile device, scroll down). Be sure to respond when you receive your activation email!

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Ghost Stats

I need a little help. I’m attempting to put together data on criminal firearms use. I need data on the criminal use of unlicensed, individually manufactured firearms: i.e.- zip guns, firearms home-built from 80% receivers, 3D-printed firearms, and the like. This would exclude licensed manufacture of firearms whose serial numbers were obliterated.

I’ve spent a couple of days searching for reports, papers, news stories… pretty much anything. I can find no collated data on such use. My usual search-fu has failed me.

I do find news opinion propaganda pieces in which some police officer or other official makes a blanket — yet somehow undocumented — claim that such weapons are turning up at crime scenes more and more often. I want data on that.

What I have found is three reports of firearm, home-built from 80% receivers, used in killings in the past five years (Zawahri, 2013; Bertics, 2015; Neal, 2017). I expected more. (Unsurprisingly, all were in gun-controlled California).

I also found two reports of people making and selling such unserialized firearms… to undercover agents. Again, both cases in California; go figure.

I have not found a single report of a 3D-printed firearm — plastic or metallic — being used in crime. There were four “firearms” reportedly found by TSA in carry-on baggage; one an object that even the TSA referred to only as a “replica,” and three AR lowers, of which at least one resulted in no charges, but was voluntarily abandoned, leading me to suspect it was still an 80%. The report on the other two did not mention charges one way or the other; none of the lowers were pictured.

The lack of 3D-printed firearm in crime doesn’t surprise me, but I expected to see more 80%-based gear, and even the occasional zip gun.

If anyone can point me to collected data on criminal use (mostly use in crime beyond the offense of making/selling, but that, too), I would greatly appreciate it.

Otherwise, I’m going to have to go the FOIA route with the ATF, and that’s going to take money I don’t have (see PayPal link below, if you’d like to help that way). And likely a lot of time. Surely, someone has researched this before.


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Judicial Overreach: The Internet Strikes Back

U.S. District Judge Robert Lasnik,in Washington state, issued a temporary injunction against Texas-based DefDist barring them from releasing hobbyist computer code files. Somehow, the ruling by one district judge is allegedly binding on the entire country.

The Internet, thanks to Code Is Free Speech, struck back.

Firearm-Related Speech, Machining Instructions, Codes Published by Civil Rights Organizations, Activists at New CodeIsFreeSpeech.com Website
SACRAMENTO, CA (July 31, 2018) — Tonight, the organizations and individuals behind CodeIsFreeSpeech.com, a new Web site for the publication and sharing of firearm-related speech, including machine code, have issued the following statement:

Our Constitution’s First Amendment secures the right of all people to engage in truthful speech, including by sharing information contained in books, paintings, and files. Indeed, freedom of speech is a bedrock principle of our United States and a cornerstone of our democratic Republic. Through CodeIsFreeSpeech.com, we intend to encourage people to consider new and different aspects of our nation’s marketplace of ideas – even if some government officials disagree with our views or dislike our content – because information is code, code is free speech, and free speech is freedom.

Should any tyrants wish to chill or infringe the rights of the People, we would welcome the opportunity to defend freedom whenever, wherever, and however necessary. Hand-waving and hyperbole are not compelling government interests and censorship is not proper tailoring under the law.

[READ MORE]

The plaintively-whining pisswit plaintiffs allege no standing. They can present no case of a crime committed with a 3D-printed hobbyist experiment. They don’t explain why lawfully printing a gun is worse than lawfully assembling a zipgun from Lowes-supplied pipe. They do — falsely — claim that such a home-built firearm is “undetectable;” the law has been clear on that for decades: firearms must incorporate a minimum mass of metal to render them detectable by by X-ray and metal detectors. It doesn’t matter if the firearm is machined by a big corporation, screwed together from pipes by a gangbanger, or printed by a law-abiding home hobbyist.

People have been hand-making firearms for nearly a millennium (commercial mass-production of firearms is a relatively new phenomenon), from materials far more appropriate to the pressures and stresses of a firearm than plastic.

Automated additive and subtractive manufacturing has been around for decades.

Plastic has been a structural element of firearms for decades.

Only now, has it become a “problem.” Because now individual have access to the technology. Not just the licensed, regulated, tracked, inspected, harassed commercial builders.

Very few — apparently none — street thugs are going to spend hundreds of dollars on a 3D printer, more on filament, download CAD files, download more software to convert .SLDPRT files to .STL, run the conversion, and spend hours or days printing a large, bulky, poorly concealable .380 with which to rob his drug dealer. Stealing a gun or buying a gun on the black market is faster, cheaper, and gets them more effective tools of crime. That’s not what has the authoritarian goons worried.

They are afraid of the law-abiding people, who are getting a little tired of laws with no discernible relation to the constitution; honest folks who want protection the cops can’t or won’t provide; good people who might bypass the State’s attempt to render them helpless crime targets (as the criminals already do).

The goons fear arms in the hands of citizens who are tired of their shit. They are so afraid of the people that they are trying to preemptively shut down a new technology before it’s even ready to produce effective arms.

That’s OK. I still have pipe, nails, and wood in the garage.

And the country still has the Firearms Policy Coalition, Firearms Policy Foundation, The Calguns Foundation, California Association of Federal Firearms Licensees, Cody Wilson, and hundreds or thousands of people generating and sharing printer files.



Take the 3D AR Challenge!
3D-print a fully-functional, plastic AR-15, and successfully demonstrate it. The first person to do so will win 10 rounds of equally functional, 100% plastic 3D-printed .223 Remington ammunition.



Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Take the 3D AR Challenge!

The aptly named “Crooks and Liars” believes… well, let Ms. Madrak tell you:

Do-It-Yourself Plastic Guns: What Could Go Wrong?
“Tomorrow morning, the sun will be shining, the birds will be singing and anyone will be able to legally download instructions to 3d print their own fully-functional plastic gun, including the AR-15, a weapon of war. What could possibly go wrong?” Avlon said.

And that’s what happens when you get your facts from CNN.

I’ve decided to issue a challenge:

3D-print a fully-functional, plastic AR-15, and successfully demonstrate it. The first person to do so will win 10 rounds of equally functional, 100% plastic 3D-printed .223 Remington ammunition.

For contest purposes, “fully-functional” means the AR system must operate per standard design. It must be “fully semiautomatic,” firing a complete, 30-round magazine. ARs are designed with quick reloads in mind, so the test must include a magazine change, with the full second 30-round magazine fired.

It’s a system, so the magazines must also be 3D-printed in plastic in their entirety.

The presence of any metallic component will disqualify any entry.

The test must use conventional, off-the-shelf, commercial ammunition.

Contest entrants are solely responsible for compliance with the Undetectable Firearms Act and other federal laws, state/local laws, and their own personal safety.

Entries may be submitted via video which adequately shows that all components of the AR system are compliant with contest rules (i.e.- 3D-printed plastic), or in person at my location.

There are no restrictions on the type of plastic used, so long as it is extruded by the printer.

All firearms entered remain the property of their creators.

Contest entry closes at 11:59 PM on August 31, 2018.

In the event of a tie (two qualifying entries received simultaneously), the winner will be the person who shows what nation generally issues the “AR-15, a weapon of war,” to its regular troops.

Send video links, or arrange in-person demonstrations, to me at bussjaeger@zelmanpartisans.com.


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Pew-ie

The Pew Research Center has once more demonstrated why I consider it one of the least reliable surveying outfits on the planet. Which is saying a lot.

Three-in-ten U.S. adults say they currently own a gun, and of that group, 19% say they belong to the National Rifle Association.

  • Adults living in the US: 247,813,910
  • 30% of those: 74,344,173
  • 19% of that group: 14,125,392 claim to be NRA members, per Pew
  • Per the NRA: Approximately 6,000,000 members. Less than half that number (which many people believe to be unrealistically inflated to begin with).

And I stopped reading there. I suspect they’re polling mostly MSNBC hosts.

That’s a bit like like polling automobile owners, “discovering” that 19% drive M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks to work, and not noticing a problem with your methodology.

Lessee… that’s an inflation rate of 2.354232x. If we apply that to the usual “90% want this 2A infringement” BS, we see something more like 38%. Which, allowing for urban idiocy strongholds, I find rather more believable.


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills.

paypal_btn_donateCC_LG



Ed. note: This commentary appeared first in TZP’s weekly email alert. If you would like to be among the first to see new commentary (as well as to get notice of new polls and recaps of recent posts), please sign up for our alert list. (See sidebar or, if you’re on a mobile device, scroll down). Be sure to respond when you receive your activation email!

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

The stupid, it burns.

I’m getting a little burned out lately from dealing with stupidity, so pardon me if this gets a little rough around the edges.

Or the middle.

Gun controller dimwits are going nuts over the possibilty of DefDist putting its 3D printer files back online. A group of technologically-ignorant idiots tried to get an injunction to block the release; it was denied for lack of standing since no one has ever demonstrated being injured by a 3D-printed gun used in crime. I’m tempted to point them at the gun plans on Amazon just to watch all of their little pointy heads explode. And maybe at Lowes. And then the merchants of death of the plumbing industry can lobby for a Protection of Lawful Commerce in Pipe Act.

New Jersey sent DefDist a cease & desist letter, because no NJ gangbanger ever built a zip gun from pipe.

Pennsylvania convinced DefDist to block download from the SSRPA. Now they have to convince every VPN and proxy company in the world to block PA, to make that effective. Hey, they’ve had 16 years years to figure it out. Now all they need is a law against illegal drugs, murder, robbery crime and they’ll achieve frickin’ Utopia.

Except people have been generating printer files and experimenting with no designs the whole time the State Department had DefDist offline… to prevent export of gun designs. Domestic use is peachy, and not regulated by ITAR.

The aptly named name Hello Giggles fears undetectable plastic printed AR-15s. 1) I challenge Ms. Sheffer to produce a wholey plastic, printed, working AR. 2) And do it without falling afoul of the thirty year-old law against “undetectable” plastic guns… or ceramic Glocks, or whatever makes the panty-pissers dampen their drawers next.

Noted international ballistics experts Anthony A. Braga, PhD and Philip J. Cook, PhD have discovered that diameter is the single most deadly characteristic of bullets; .356″ diameter rounds being much deadlier than .356″. I referred them to Marshall & Sanow’s Handgun Stopping Power: The Definitive Study, and attempted to explain the difference between “caliber” and “cartridge.” No response, so the dumbasses are probably still parsing the big words.

Last month, WDIV’s Amber Ainsworth reported that someone carjacked a van using a machinegun, specifically a “MAC-10.” Since neither the gunman (who apparently never fired a shot) nor the weapon have been found, I wondered how they made that determination. Neither Amber, clearly a mainstreaming hire from McDonalds’ program, nor her director bothered to reply. Neither did the DPD or the ATF (who ought to have heard something about an illicit NFA firearm used in a crime).

Amusingly, while trying find more detail on that incident, I ran across an earlier report of yet another “machinegun” used in a Detroit crime; this one was identified as an Uzi submachinegun.

The evidence photo was of a semiauto “MAC-10” variant. And they say fake news is a hoax.

As mentioned earlier, the federal government’s assorted button counters can’t agree on the number of buttons people murdered with firearms, disagreeing by nearly four thousand bodies.

Ah, well. It isn’t as though the government can figure out how many of those dead folks are still voting in Chicago and elsewhere either. Probably for more gun control.

Apparently the NRA is still growing by leaps and bounds. Pew-ie Research says its now at 14,125,392 members. LaPierre and Cox are now wracking their tiny brains trying figure out how to collect the dues from all of them, and buy new limos.

Joseph Wyatt, Professor of Psychology at Marshall University, thinks it’s high time schools were made gun-free zones. He also wants all clips limited to 10 rounds. Garand owners say, “Sure. What the heck.”

Over at Childish Vogue, “Prince Shakur” is under the impression that “Gun shows are conventions where both licensed and unlicensed firearms dealers are allowed to sell firearms.” And that’s the high point of his comprehension of Federal Firearms Licensing.

Sadly, Georgia state rep Jason Spencer is the face of pro-RKBA for the media. With “friends like these…” He should have subscribed to the TZP newsletter, too. But he’s always been such a dipstick that even that wouldn’t have saved him from making — a further — um, ass of himself.

The Actuary Magazine makes the case for firearms liability insurance because total firearms deaths and injuries from murder, suicide, accidents, and justifiable homicide exceeds deaths in motor vehicle accident deaths. No word on why they want existing firearms liability insurance programs shut down, if it’s such a great idea.

Randy Bryce, running for Congress in Wisconsin, thinks felons, domestic abusers, and the mentally incompetent should be barred from firearms possession, which not only puts him right up there with Chuck Schumer, who forgot he voted for the Undetectable Firearms Act, but probably ought to make him a prohibited person due to mental incompetence. But fully qualified to be a congresscreep.

Of course there’s the perpetual denial of little facts like most crime (and especially murders) being committed by repeat offenders, mostly convicted felon prohibited persons; or that despite an uptick in crime in Democratic strongholds crime is still near its lowest in decades (school shootings, too, Parkland Pussies)… therefore we need more laws for crooks to ignore and to violate the rights of the millions not committing the crimes.

“Common sense” my white-privileged, cis-gendered, patriarchic ass.

— sigh —

I mentioned earlier that folks could contribute to the cause to enable me to conduct further research into RKBA issues. Forget it. Kick in to buy me scotch.

Here. Have some heavily armed cats.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail

Dueling Stats: CDC vs. FBI

When you have two government agencies generating conflicting data, which do you believe disbelieve less?

I ran across this story today:

CDC: Firearm-Related Homicides Surged During Obama’s Last 2 Years in Office
According to the CDC, “the number of firearm-related homicides was relatively stable during 2010–2014,” then firearm-related homicides sharply increased. For example, there were 11,008 firearm-related homicides in 2014 and that number rose to 14,415 in 2016. That is a 31 percent increase.

Sure enough, the CDC’s WISQARS is now reporting 14,415 homicides by firearm. Which struck me as odd, because I’ve been using the figure 11,004 for 2016.

11,004 is exactly what the FBI’s UCR is reporting for 2016; that’s 3,411 fewer firearms-related murders than the CDC retroactively claims.

In fact, the UCR figure for total murders — any weapon — is 15,070, only 655 more than the CDC’s firearm-only murders claim. The CDC claims 19,362 total murders (+4,292 difference).

Oh, and the 2014 numbers for firearms-related homicides?

CDC 2014: 11,008

UCR 2014: 8,124 (A difference of 2,884 murders.)

Odd.

The agencies use different sources for their data. The UCR is based on police incident reports. WISQARS comes from incident coding in medical reports. One or the other — or both — could be wrong. But clearly both need some quality assurance checking to see if either come close to reality.

I’d love to do a little research into the discrepancy myself, but as an unpaid volunteer, it’s beyond my means. If you’d like to see me dig into this, consider contributing a little to the cause.

ETA, 8//2018: Gee, how ’bout that?

CDC Finally Corrects Bad Data On Number of Firearm Deaths
However, in 2017, John Lott found a discrepancy. He noted that due to an error in Tennessee’s data, the total count was about 100 higher than it should have been. He notified the CDC and they acknowledged the mistake.

It just took them a year to finally fix it.


Carl is an unpaid TZP volunteer. If you found this post useful, please consider dropping something in his tip jar. He could use the money, what with truck repairs and recurring bills. Click here to donate via PayPal.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinteresttumblrmail