In October 2019, a very interesting paper was published regarding mass public shootings in the United States.
DECONSTRUCTING MASS PUBLIC SHOOTINGS
When it comes to mass shootings, the United States is tragically in a class of its own. There are more mass public shootings in the US than in any other country in the world. By some estimates the United States has experienced 318 mass public shootings between 1966 and 2017.
It appears to be a scholarly attempt to rationalize more gun people control. Without a whole lot of interest, I idly skimmed over it, thinking maybe I’d do a full-scale fisking.
Then this virtually leapt off the page and grabbed me by the eyeballs.
Handguns are the weapon of choice in mass public shootings. At least one handgun was used in 75 percent of mass public shootings. Handguns are followed by semiautomatic rifles (24%), shotguns (21%) and automatic or “assault” rifles (10%). In addition to firearms, 15 percent of perpetrators obtained non-firearm weapons such as Improvised Explosive Devises (IEDs), knives, and blunt objects, among others.
This isn’t the commonly seen “assault weapon” misnomer. Authors Joel A. Capellan and Allan Y. Jiao differentiate between semiautomatic and automatic weapons. They claim to have found that 10% of 318 mass public shootings were committed with automatic weapons: 31 to 32 shootings depending on how they rounded off the decimal place.
I found that number astonishing. At that time, I had documented fewer than five criminals uses of machineguns as defined in 26 U.S. Code § 5845(b) since passage of the National Firearms Act of 1934. And none of those uses were mass public shootings as defined by Capellan and Jiao (“the killing of four or more individuals in one or more closely related locations within a 24-hour period”).
Currently, I have confirmed six criminal uses, three unconfirmed possibles, and I found numerous undocumented anecdotal references to 1980s Miami shootings. And still none were mass shootings.
In hopes of updating my machinegun information, I asked the authors for their source data for the “automatic or “assault” rifle” shootings. After two and a half weeks of reaching out to the Rockefeller Institute of Government, Rowan University, and the authors, lead author Capellan finally responded and promised to have the data sent to me.
That was five weeks ago. The data was never sent, and Capellan does not answer emails. Thus, I do not know what the alleged incidents were; when, where, who, nor the actual type of weapon.
I can, however, speculate; and I shall.
My first thought was that they encountered news accounts of weapons reported as “MAC-10,” “AR-15,” or “AK-47” and mistook them for automatic weapons. If such were the case, a review of their data would have revealed it, and I could quietly inform the authors so that they could quite professionally retract and revise their paper.
But the time-frame — 1966-2017 — they use is interesting, as is the number of shootings found.
Their first footnote is “Public Mass Shooters and Firearms: A Cross-National Study of 171 Countries,” Lankford, 2016“, which also found mass shootings starting in 1966, and up to 2012. Lankford found 292.
I suspect Capellan and Jiao used Lankford’s list, and updated for US shootings up to 2017. I see that as a possibility because Lankford’s 292 mass shootings over a 46 year period is an average of 6.35 shootings per year. Adding in the extra five years, at the same rate, of Capellan’s and Jiao’s study period would be 323.7 shootings; that is a bare few more than the number they have: 318.
If they did so, that’s a rather large problem. Lankford’s debunked list of 292 shootings was worldwide, not just the US. Only 91 of Lankford’s shootings were in the US.
They do cite Lankford for their numbers; but if they only used his 91 US shootings, then they also found 227 mass shootings in the next five years; an average of 45.4 per year. Time Magazine found a small fraction of that for the 2013-2017 period: 33 total; and average of 6.6 per year (note the similarity to Lankford’s 6.35 average). That includes shootings which would be excluded by the Capellan/Jiao definition, which yields a total of 21, averaging 4.2 per year.
Without being able to see the Capellan/Jiao data, it very much seems as though they mistakenly used Lankford’s complete worldwide shooting list.
If this is the case, it could also explain how they might have found actual machinegun shootings; Lankford’s data includes shootings committed by foreign military personnel, an example being the Rwandan soldier who went on a rampage, killing 14 people and wounding another 19. But you might expect the authors to notice that was in Rwanda and not the United States.
Perhaps someday Capellan will provide the promised data and I will know for sure. Perhaps it prove accurate, and my knowledge (and list) will be expanded.
While this is not a complete deconstruction of the paper, I think one more thing about the mass shooting weapons is notable.
Handguns are the weapon of choice in mass public shootings. At least one handgun was used in 75 percent of mass public shootings. Handguns are followed by semiautomatic rifles (24%), shotguns (21%) and automatic or “assault” rifles (10%)
Handguns, semiautomatic rifles, shotguns, and assault rifles. But what of other rifles, such as the bolt-action Remington 700 ADL used by the 1966 University of Texas tower shooter? Or the 1974 Olean High School shooting? The 2006 West Nickel Mines School shooting with a Ruger M77 bolt-action? And the Skagit County shooting spree; Winchester lever-action rifle?
Capellan/Jiao took the time to note the use of non-firearm weapons, but omitted bolt and lever guns?
In truth, while I was primarily hoping to see the machinegun list, I really think all of their data needs to be vetted.
[Permission to republish this article is granted so long as it is not edited, and the author and The Zelman Partisans are credited.]
